Gravitational waves discovery now officially dead

I tweeted this yesterday, but it deserves a blog entry: Gravitational waves discovery now officially dead : Nature News & Comment.

A team of astronomers that last year reported evidence for gravitational waves from the early Universe has now withdrawn the claim. A joint analysis of data recorded by the team’s BICEP2 telescope at the South Pole and by the European spacecraft Planck has revealed that the signal can be entirely attributed to dust in the Milky Way rather than having a more ancient, cosmic origin.

So, that’s that then.  As many will point out, this doesn’t mean the idea of observing primordial gravitational waves is dead, but it does remove what it would have implied (evidence for cosmic inflation, bubble universes, etc) back into speculative science, at least for now.  As someone who replied to my tweet said: science at work.

Most astrophysicists continue to believe that cosmic inflation is real, but of course, most astrophysicists before 1998 believed that the expansion of the universe was slowing, that it was only a matter of determining by how much it was slowing.  The discovery of dark energy caused a massive reset in those beliefs.  It awaits to be seen whether the beliefs about inflation will eventually require a similar reset.

Cosmic inflation appears to have shifted from settled science back to speculation

You can get background on what I’m talking about in this post here and here.

Probably the best thing to do is let the experts weigh in on this.

It’s interesting to note that the empirical evidence from BICEP2 has never been called into question, only the interpretation of that evidence.  An interesting reminder, no doubt painful for the scientists personally involved, is that scientific evidence remains as much about interpretation of the evidence as the evidence itself.

BICEP2 team publishes results, backpedals on certainty

The BICEP2 team have officially published their results.  They had announced to much fanfare back in March, that they had detected primordial gravitational waves, and hence cosmic inflation.  But the results have increasingly been met with doubt, primarily centered on the possibility of interstellar dust causing the observed results.

From a New Scientist article on the published paper:

It was hailed as the discovery of the century. But now the researchers who earlier this year reported the first detection of primordial gravitational waves – ripples in space time hailing from the early universe – say they are not so sure after all.

“Has my confidence gone down? Yes,” says Clement Pryke of the University of Minnesota, co-leader of the team that reported the original result.

In March, the team, which uses a telescope called BICEP2 based at the South Pole, announced their discovery at the Harvard Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts. They also posted their results online.

Today, the first peer-reviewed version of their results appears in the journalPhysical Review Letters – and it backtracks on the certainty of the original announcement.

None of this means that gravitational waves, or cosmic inflation, is disproven.  The other experiments racing to find evidence may come up with independent results soon.  But in science, nothing is settled until the data is in, and the results have been extensively replicated and accepted.

The Big Bang’s Identity Crisis – The Nature of Reality

More bang for the buck? Credit: jeff_golden/Flickr, adapted under a Creative Commons license.

Think of the Big Bang, and you probably imagine a moment in time when matter, energy and space itself all burst into existence at once. Yet many astrophysicists now believe that the “Big Bang” was actually two distinct events: first the inaugural instant of space and time, and second the generation of most of the “stuff” that populates that space. So, which really deserves to be called the Big Bang?

via The Big Bang’s Identity Crisis – The Nature of Reality.

This article calls attention to a dispute I’ve noticed lately.  Some physicists insist that cosmic inflation happened before the Big Bang, others that the Big Bang was the moment of everything began.  Of course, if you accept the theory of eternal inflation, then there was no beginning, and the period of inflation ending is the point of the Big Bang.

Given how imprecise the term “Big Bang” actually is, how inappropriate of a term it is for describing what it applies to anyway, the debate strikes me a somewhat meaningless.  (No, as the article describes, I don’t have a catchier name than “Big Bang”.  That still doesn’t make it accurate.)

Personally, I’ve always thought of the Big Bang starting from the earliest moments of our universe that we can know anything about, and lasting until the cosmic microwave background was generated (after all, the CMB was often called the “afterglow” of the big bang), but I realize that isn’t how most cosmologists think about it.  Of course, an argument could be made that we’re still living within the Big Bang, since everything is still expanding and cooling, although dark energy complicates that assertion.

The debate does serve one purpose however.  It illuminates the stages of the early universe, which given how difficult these concepts are to describe, is actually a good thing.

Growing doubt that gravitational waves were actually detected

Nature has an article up describing the problems with the BICEP2 results that are now being identified by various scientists.  It’s actually the second one I’ve seen them publish on this.

The astronomers who this spring announced that they had evidence of primordial gravitational waves jumped the gun because they did not take into proper account a confounding effect of galactic dust, two new analyses suggest. Although further observations may yet find the signal to emerge from the noise, independent experts now say they no longer believe that the original data constituted significant evidence.

Researchers said in March that they had found a faint twisting pattern in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the Big Bang’s afterglow, using a South Pole-based radio telescope called BICEP2. This pattern, they said, was evidence for primordial gravitational waves, ripples in the fabric of space-time generated in the early Universe (see ‘Telescope captures view of gravitational waves‘). The announcement caused a sensation because it seemed to confirm the theory of cosmic inflation, which holds that the cosmos mushroomed in size during the first fraction of a second after the Big Bang.

However two independent analyses now suggest that those twisting patterns in the CMB polarization could just as easily be accounted for by dust in the Milky Way Galaxy12.

The BICEP2 team has reportedly been sticking to their guns, and many theoretical physicists initially downplayed the issues, so I’ve been reluctant to put too much credence to these stories.  But the doubts seem to be gaining more traction, and this caught my attention:

“I had thought that the result was very secure,” Alan Guth, the cosmologist who first proposed the concept of cosmic inflation in 1980, and who is at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, told Nature after learning about Flauger’s talk. “Now the situation has changed.”

It’s still possible that when the BICEP2 team actually publishes their results, all of the issues will be addressed and results still found to be compelling.  But when the father of cosmic inflation loses confidence in the results, I’d say they’re on the ropes.  Inflation definitely may still be reality, but we might not have proof for it yet.

xkcd: Cosmologist on a Tire Swing

A few years ago the “it’s senseless to ask what came before the big bang because there was no before” meme was hot.  I remember Stephen Hawking saying it in his documentary a year or two ago.  There now seems to be a good amount of push-back from the rest of the cosmology community to this certitude.

via xkcd: Cosmologist on a Tire Swing.

“Cosmology sounds pretty confusing”.   Amen.

PHD Comics: Cosmic Inflation Explained

So, even though I already linked to two sources about cosmic inflation this week, this is good enough that I’m also going to throw it in.  It’s fascinating to me that the large scale structure of our universe is ultimately caused by quantum fluctuations in the earliest moments of the big bang.

Click through for the full sized version.

via PHD Comics: Cosmic Inflation Explained.

Primers on detecting primordial gravity waves and cosmic inflation

First, Minute Physics takes a shot at explaining what the BICEP2 team actually found and how it relates to gravitational waves.  I think I’m going to have to watch this a second time to pick up everything.

And Ethan Siegel has an in-depth discussion of cosmic inflation at his Starts With A Bang site.

First Direct Evidence of Cosmic Inflation – SpaceRef

Wow!  There were lots of rumors about this over the weekend.  Turns out that, in this case, the rumors were spot on.

Almost 14 billion years ago, the universe we inhabit burst into existence in an extraordinary event that initiated the Big Bang. In the first fleeting fraction of a second, the universe expanded exponentially, stretching far beyond the view of our best telescopes. All this, of course, was just theory.

Papers online at http://bicepkeck.org/

Researchers from the BICEP2 collaboration today announced the first direct evidence for this cosmic inflation. Their data also represent the first images of gravitational waves, or ripples in space-time. These waves have been described as the “first tremors of the Big Bang.” Finally, the data confirm a deep connection between quantum mechanics and general relativity.

more at First Direct Evidence of Cosmic Inflation – SpaceRef.