Eavesdropping on E.T. and the possibility of interstellar travel

Gabriel Popkin as an article at Inside Science about a study that looks at the possibility of intercepting communications between other alien civilizations.  The idea is that communicating across interstellar distances is best done with lasers.

So far, the optical search for extraterrestrial intelligence has focused mainly on the hope of receiving—and recognizing—an intentional, laser-encoded message. Researchers use dedicated telescopes or mine astronomical data collected for other purposes, like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, to search for light pulses that could not be produced by any known object like a star. So far, no one has reported a light pattern that suggests an extraterrestrial intelligence.

But rather than look for light beamed directly at us, astronomers could also try to intercept signals sent between two distant civilizations. If advanced beings have existed for millions of years, they may well have found each other and started talking. Eventually many light beams would penetrate the intergalactic darkness, creating a criss-crossing network of communication beacons. As our solar system revolves around the galactic center, could we meander into the path of one of these beams?

While an interesting idea, the study largely concluded that this is unlikely to happen.

Unsurprisingly, he found that the chance of intercepting another civilization’s messages increased as more civilizations joined the communications network. He also found that the interception probability increased dramatically as the angle through which the beams spread out increased.

But the probability of accidentally wandering through a beam remained small as long as the beams were narrow, or collimated, like a typical laser. The beams would have to spread out about 1,000 times more widely than a standard laser pointer—in other words, more like a flashlight beam—before we have a decent chance of intercepting them, Forgan says. Sending out such a wide beam would require far more energy than emitting a tightly collimated one.

This isn’t too surprising.  Interstellar space is vast, and solar systems are (relatively) tiny.  As the article discusses, the aliens would have to go expensively out of their way to increase the odds of being detected by a third party.

One thing I find interesting about these studies, is that they have an implicit assumption: that interstellar travel or exploration is impossible, even robotically.  Because if it is possible and there are indeed hundreds of civilizations in the galaxy, then there would likely already be a communication relay in every solar system, and a vast interstellar communication web network.  If so, then our system would almost certainly have multiple beams interacting with other nearby stars.

If the aliens don’t want to be detected, it is possible that they could keep their relay stations in the Oort cloud, the region of comets and other icy bodies extending for a couple of light years out from the sun.  Of course, avoiding detection would have to be a major priority for them to keep their facilities so far away from the free solar energy of the sun.  But they could have decided to do so as soon as they noticed a tool using species developing on the third planet.  And if staying  hidden is a priority, we’re unlikely to find them for a while.

But, is the assumption that interstellar travel is impossible a valid one?  Or are SETI and other astronomers being overly pessimistic?  Most people are aware of the speed of light limitation, that nothing can travel faster than light.  But lamenting that issue is actually a bit of sour grapes, since we don’t even have the foreseeable technology to get to a significant percentage of the speed of light.  Just getting to 10% of c (the speed of light) will require astounding amounts of energy.

But it’s hard to imagine that in the centuries and millennia ahead, that we won’t be able to cobble together some method of getting to at least 1% of c.  There have been designs around for decades, such as the Orion Project, which would use nuclear explosions to propel a craft up to a high speed.  And there are many more speculative designs out there that could conceivably improve on that.

The problem is that Orion would still take centuries to reach the nearest star.  It’s easy enough for science fiction writers to wave their hands and imagine robotic probe machinery working that long, but engineering it is a different matter.  Still, Voyager 1 is four decades out and is expected to work at least another decade, albeit in a very low power mode.  Building a probe that could work for centuries would be difficult, but it remains an engineering challenge, not a fundamental limitation of physics.

And I think that’s why I remain optimistic that interstellar exploration will ultimately be possible, at least with robots.  Because the issues to be overcome are engineering ones, not fundamental scientific ones.  It’s hard to say whether those engineering challenges will be overcome in a century, a millennia, or farther out, but insisting that they never will seems unnecessarily pessimistic.

But as soon as we reach that conclusion, we’re back to wondering where everyone is (the Fermi Paradox).  Either they (or more likely their robotic representatives) are already here in the solar system, and hiding, as described above or in some other way, or they’re simply not there.  Or perhaps more accurately, the nearest neighboring civilization is millions of light years away in another galaxy, far enough away that they haven’t had time to reach us yet, if they ever will.

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8 Responses to Eavesdropping on E.T. and the possibility of interstellar travel

  1. An Interesting post.
    I have recently written one about the more conventional searches for radio signals.
    http://thesciencegeek01.wordpress.com/2014/09/10/seti/

    Let me know what you think ?

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Mordanicus says:

    Reblogged this on Fascinating Future and commented:
    Interesting post on interstellar travel and provide one of the reasons that mundane science fiction is limited to our Solar System as believable interstellar travel is unlikely to be developed any time soon.

    Like

  3. Wyrd Smythe says:

    One of the interesting litmus tests in SF is whether an author sticks to Einstein’s SR or brings in warp drive or worm holes to tell the tale. Zipping around the galaxy offers many story advantages, but I’ve always liked seeing how authors operate in the context of no FTL.

    And I forget if it was Saberhagen’s Berserker series or maybe Greg Bear’s excellent Forge of God (which also features world-shattering killer robot machines), but over and over is the idea that “a smart bird in a dangerous forest makes no sounds!”

    Meanwhile, ever since we stumbled on radio we’ve been broadcasting our presence…. o_O

    Like

    • Agreed on SF. I wrote a Nanowrimo novel a couple of years ago that forsook FTL. The resulting story constraints were painfully onerous. I can definitely see why most space sci-fi just goes with FTL. Building a “fun” Einsteinian fictional universe is a challenge.

      Shouting into the wilderness is a questionable tactic. Luckily, most of what we’ve done so far amounts to a whisper, probably fading into background noise within a few dozens of light years.

      Like

      • Wyrd Smythe says:

        It depends on the story you want to tell. Space opera and space battles are mostly out, but there are exceptions (F.M. Busby’s “Long View” novels, for example).

        There’s (maybe) a little bit of correlation between scientists or engineers turned SF author and Einsteinian SF universes (Greg Egan would be my prime example). Could be they’re just more able to tease out the storytelling opportunities within the constraints (which, as you say, are formidable).

        It’s true our trace likely is faint the further out you get, but keep in mind a number of Earth predators are preternaturally acute at detecting prey. Some need just a few molecules to begin zeroing in!

        It suddenly occurs to me that space monsters would have no size limits (think whales and giant killer squids) and could be as large as big stars or bigger. Such a creature almost certainly would sense photons and the radio telescope aperture for their sense organs could be humongous.

        Such a critter might be extremely good at picking up signal in the noise (just like some Earth predators)!

        Hey…. I may have just figured out dark matter… vast schools of star-sized killer space squids! And of course they don’t radiate… that would attract other squids!

        Like

        • I’ve heard of FM Busby, but never got around to reading any of his stuff. The Long View series sounds interesting. On Einsteinian space opera, you might check out Alastair Reynolds’s Revelation Space series. Reynolds’s stuff isn’t diamond hard like Egan’s, but I think it’s more fun.

          When it comes to dangerous space predators, consider that we’re thinking about something very specific: something that goes after intelligent life, not life in general. The Earth has been sitting here for billions of years with a biosphere, the light reflected off of it showing signs of biochemical processes. If there was something gobbling up life, we probably would have been hit long ago.

          I think Berserkers are unlikely, mainly because I’ve never heard of a plausible sound reason for their motivation.

          Like

          • Wyrd Smythe says:

            The name (Alastair Reynolds) is familiar, but I didn’t recognize any of the items in his bibliography. Might he have had a short story published in one of those Hugo winner collection volumes? That could be where I’ve run into him before.

            The evolution of intelligent-life-seeking predators assumes evolution produces tasty, delicious intelligent life on a regular enough basis to sustain the population.

            Look at that. Not only solved the dark matter problem, we’ve also solved Fermi’s Paradox!

            As for Berserkers, the reason usually postulated is “REVENGE*!! Remember that star system eating machine from the TOS episode, The Doomsday Machine? Just another example of M.A.D.-ness.

            Liked by 1 person

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