It’s a relief that Trump received a decisive repudiation, and that it manifested quickly and decisively enough that he can’t productively contest it. Democrats will now control both the house and senate with comfortable margins. In addition, they made progress down ballot, winning governor and state legislatures that could have major implications in the years to come.
Trump is now making some noises about wanting to work with the Democrats, but he did that in 2018 and the next two years were an ongoing battle. I’m anticipating something similar here. And the Republicans will have a lame duck session where they may make final attempts to ram through pet legislation and/or possibly a supreme court nominee, if they can convince Alito to retire. It could be an ugly couple of months.
And there are dangers here for the Democrats. I’m already seeing some overinterpret the results, claiming there’s now a mandate for their favorite liberal policies. I say this as someone who wouldn’t mind seeing at least some of those policies enacted. Most of the current mandate is that high prices suck, which actually was most of the mandate in 2024. Trump ignored that mandate in favor of his own long preferred policies (high tariffs, killing foreign aid and diversity programs, and immigrant persecution, among other nutty things), resulting in his current situation. For now at least, Democrats are somewhat protected against themselves by not holding the presidency.
And it’s worth taking a reality check. Democrats won’t have a filibuster proof majority in the senate, and they certainly won’t have a veto proof one. And they won’t have the votes to convict in impeachment trials. At least unless they can convince some Republicans. Which means their primary ability in the next two years is to act as a block to Trump’s more insane and reckless appointments and initiatives, and (hopefully) be able to negotiate with the Republicans where there are common interests.
But the down ballot wins may have longer term consequences. One major one: Democrats will control enough state legislatures to possibly enact the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. This would award presidential elections by the national popular vote. It’s an end-run around the constitutional amendment process required to formally end the electoral college. Instead, the compact would require that when states comprising more than 270 electoral votes sign up to it, all of those states would award their electoral votes according to the national vote.
Will it happen? I don’t know. We may find out how serious many of the states are about it. Some may rethink whether it’s really in their interests to give up any electoral advantage they may currently enjoy. Still, the chances of this compact making it across the finish line are now higher than they’ve ever been.
In any case, even under the existing system, Democrats now control governorships in most of the key swing states, which should remove, or at least reduce, the possibility of Trump attempting to monkey with the voting processes in 2028.
For Republicans, it’s time to start reassessing how their positions have drifted and rebuilding their coalition. That’s going to be difficult while they still have an unprincipled short sighted narcissist leading them, one who is very unlikely to cooperate. Hopefully there will be enough finally willing to move beyond Trump.
This country continues to have serious problems. But at least for now, there’s more hope for rational governance.
