Self-driving cars (SDC) that include driver control are expected to hit highways around the globe before 2025 and self-driving “only” cars are anticipated around 2030, according to an emerging technologies study on Autonomous Cars from IHS Automotive, driven by Polk.
In the study, “Emerging Technologies: Autonomous Cars—Not If, But When,” IHS Automotive forecasts total worldwide sales of self-driving cars will grow from nearly 230 thousand in 2025 to 11.8 million in 2035 – 7 million SDCs with both driver control and autonomous control and 4.8 million that have only autonomous control. In all, there should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035.
I have to say that I’m looking forward to having my own self driving car. I’ve heard and read other people say they would never give up the driving experience. Not me. Oh, I do like to drive, sometimes, but much of the time I’d rather be doing something else: reading, surfing the web, sleeping, or blogging 🙂
The report talks about the fact that SDCs will almost certainly have a lower accident rate than manually operated cars. I think that’s right. SDCs will almost certainly be programmed to be supremely conservative. The industry knows that even a single injury, much less a fatality, would set it back decades.
It’s not hard to imagine a day where it’s actually illegal to manually drive your car on certain highways or at certain times a day. It’s also not hard to imagine automated driverless delivery trucks and similar mechanisms. (All while Amazon’s and other’s delivery drones are zipping overhead with smaller packages.)
- 54 million self-driving cars will be on the road by 2035, study finds – Los Angeles Times (eboertjes.wordpress.com)
- Self-Driving Cars: Previews of a Signless Future? (myparkingsign.com)
- Study: All cars will be self-driving (usatoday.com)